President Buhari’s to-do list: Boko Haram, democracy and the 'petrocalypse'

Nigeria’s new president Muhammadu Buhari attends his swearing in on 29 May in Abuja. Photograph: Bennett Raglin/Getty Images

In the vast expanse of Abuja’s Eagle Square, Muhammadu Buhari became Nigeria’s head of state on Friday.

There is little doubt that most Nigerians are glad to see the back of his controversial predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, whose most significant act in office was to concede defeat in the March election. This means that Buhari assumed office on a tide of national goodwill – but also under pressure from stratospheric expectations, and burdened with lofty campaign promises.
The new president has plenty of work to do, and these are the issues that will be top of his overflowing inbox:

‘Petrocalypse’ now

A man works at an illegal oil refinery site near river Nun in Nigeria’s oil state of Bayelsa.

In Buhari’s first week in office, Africa’s largest oil producer is facing a nationwide petrol shortage.
Nigeria imports all its fuel at full market price as it has almost no refining capacity of its own, and the government provides massive subsidies to keep pump prices lower. But after a dispute over payments, Nigeria’s petrol dealers stopped distributing, plunging the country into crisis.
“This latest scarcity of petroleum products is one of the worst many can remember, because almost no one can remember a situation where major businesses had to close early and flights were grounded due to a lack of diesel. Nigerians are tired and clearly desire a lasting solution. Therein lies the opportunity for Buhari’s government,” wrote Joachim MacEbong.
After talks between government and the distributors, the crisis is easing somewhat, but Buhari will have to make some sweeping changes to guard against a repeat strike.
At the heart of the problem lies the state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
“His success or otherwise in fixing the company that manages the lifeblood of the economy – oil – could make or break his presidency and determine whether or not Nigeria lives up to its potential. Enmeshed in a web of patronage and allegations of criminality, the NNPC is, according to a vociferous group of technocrats, oil officials and politicians, leading Africa’s top oil producer on a path of self-inflicted decline,” commented William Wallis in the Financial Times.
A long-term saviour lies in Aliko Dangote’s $9 billion oil refinery, currently under construction, and which, as far as Buhari is concerned, can’t be finished soon enough.

The ongoing fight against Boko Haram

Nigerian soldiers celebrate after recapturing areas of Baga, north east Nigeria earlier this year. Photograph: STR/EPA

Related: How Nigeria turned a corner against Boko Haram

There are three major reasons why Buhari is thought to be the man to sort out the Boko Haram crisis in northeastern Nigeria, and quickly.
Firstly, Boko Haram are already on the back foot. Stung by international criticism and with an eye on his reelection bid, Jonathan gave serious attention to the problem in his last few months in office. With a lot of help from private security contractors (the guns-for-hire formerly known as mercenaries), and by co-operating with the armies of Cameroon, Niger and Chad, Nigerian security forces have rolled back most of Boko Haram’s expansion. Buhari will be expected to press home this advantage.
Secondly, Buhari is a military man, and can reasonably expect respect and co-operation from the armed forces.
Buhari is also from the north himself, and Muslim. It’s no coincidence that Boko Haram prospered under Jonathan, who was a Christian and from the country’s south.
Boko Haram are organised and effective, and well-trained in operating as a guerrilla movement, but Buhari must be careful that, in focusing on sorting out the challenging security situation in the north-east, he doesn’t neglect other potential hotspots.
“Activists and political analysts say if Buhari focuses on repairing the north-east without coming up with a similar plan to help the underdeveloped [southern] delta, he risks reigniting conflict in the heart of Nigeria’s economic engine. He has to find ways to use resources to address all these issues simultaneously,” said Adigun Agbaje, a political commentator and professor at the University of Ibadan.
“There is a national consensus that the north east requires a special focus but not to the determent of other issues,” reported Chris Stein for Al Jazeera.
‘A former strongman who espouses democratic change’

Muhammadu Buhari casts his vote in his home town of Daura, northern Nigeria Saturday, 28 March.

Can a leopard change its spots? Can Buhari really distance himself from his past as one of Nigeria’s worst dictators?
“In many ways, the former military ruler ... remains an enigma. He seems composed of two such thoroughly contradictory strands – a former strongman who espouses democratic change – that it is hard to know which one will prevail when he takes over the government of Nigeria this week.
“Will the Muhammadu Buhari of 30 years ago show himself – the harsh military dictator who jailed journalists, inflicted physical humiliation on civil servants and expelled thousand of immigrants?” wrote Adam Nossiter in the New York Times.
“The Buhari of today shows little to no contrition for his younger self. He simply says that he has changed with the times and that he is now a thoroughgoing democrat.”
But other analysts suggest that Buhari’s heavy-handed past might be exactly what the country needs. “A part of me wishes the old Buhari would re-emerge – just for a couple of weeks. Countrywide swoops could net the Big Men and what might fall out of their pockets if they were turned upside down could replenish the state coffers. The rape of a rich country which has one of the highest infant death rates in the world – 74 per thousand – is no small crime,” observed the Royal African Society’s Richard Dowden.
In his democratic gestures so far, the signs are good. Buhari has said that his cabinet would be made up of people with requisite experience, and committed technocrats.
Another break from tradition is his insistence that he won’t interfere in contentious parliamentary leadership contests. “I am prepared to work with any leaders that the House or Senate selects,” Buhari said. “It doesn’t matter who the person is or where he or she is from. There is due process for the selection of leaders of the National Assembly… and I will not interfere in that process.”

‘Rome was not built in a day’

Supporters of new Muhammadu Buhari celebrate after his Inauguration in Abuja on Friday.

Like politicians everywhere, Buhari and his All Progressives Congress (APC) weren’t afraid to make grand promises in the run-up to the election. Now they have to deliver – but already the backtracking has begun.
“During the campaign, APC had literarily pledged to ‘make a new heaven on earth’ if elected. However, the story turned after Nigerians voted overwhelmingly for [them] as the party leaders urged the electorate not to expect miracles overnight. Speaking at a public function, the president-elect, Muhammadu Buhari said: ‘The expectation is too high and I have started nervously to explain to people that Rome was not built in a day. For this to be corrected, please, give the incoming government a chance’,” reported Ameh Comrade Godwin in Nigeria’s Daily Post.
The APC has been getting its excuses in early, with Jonathan’s administration – not necessarily unfairly – being scapegoated.
“Never in the history of our country has any government handed over to another a more distressed country: No electricity, no fuel, workers are on strike, billions are owed to state and federal workers, $60bn are owed in national debt and the economy is virtually grounded,” said APC national publicity secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed.
Nonetheless, Buhari’s big promise was change – how long will the electorate give him to deliver it?